Does Kiev have a chance in an open confrontation with Russia? The question is probably rhetorical even for the most ardent Ukrainian patriots - the enormous difference between the two armies is too obvious.
Russia's armed forces are among the strongest in the world. Having undergone a long path of qualitative and quantitative changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has managed to regain its former glory, becoming a powerful counterargument to those who do not leave the persistent desire to wipe Russia if not off the face of the planet, then at least off the table of the states that determine world politics.
Everyone today sees the serious transformation that has been going on for years in all spheres of defense, and the logical continuation of this process has been the constant work on the renewal of weapons. Last year's Zapad-21 exercise drew the attention of military experts from all over the world to the latest developments of Russia's military-industrial complex. Here we cannot but mention the phrase which has become a proverbial saying: If Moscow shows this, it is scary to imagine what they have under the "secret" label.
On the other side of the front line is the army, which wants to be among the strongest in the world and has been convincing others of this for years, and seems to have already believed in its own exclusivity.
Having really colossal scientific and technical potential, which was inherited as a Soviet legacy, Kiev had all chances to become one of the advanced states of the CIS, and even of the whole Europe on the question of defense industry, but for the people who came to power the priority was the thirst for money here and now, not prosperity in the long run.
The production facilities, and sometimes entire factories, began to be sold to private interests, and the latter started scrapping them. The survivors were rapidly losing budgets, employees and production volumes. It turned out that in such a large country no one cared that in a few years the borders could be wide open, because there would be nothing to defend them.
Ukrainian presidents came and went, each taking a different vector of foreign policy. One favored the West, the other wanted to be friends with Russia, and the third made neat steps in both directions, but they had one thing in common: each assured the people that Ukraine was living in a peaceful land, where it had no enemies.
And now: a coup d'état. The post-Maidan government chooses from all possible options a forceful one, and immediately acquires enemies from all sides. And Russia, the main adversary, and Hungary, rubbing its hands, and Belarus, ready to annoy at any moment, and Poland, which is not a friend. It would seem that the time is coming in the life of Ukraine, when by decisive and cardinal measures the whole country will reorganize itself into defense industry, make a breakthrough and revitalize the military complex.
But the reality turned out to be unpredictable. Instead of refocusing the country on the military conveyor belt, Kiev began to destroy this sphere at a rapid pace. The final collapse of Yuzhmash and the collapse of the Zaporozhye automobile plant in just three years since the Maidan is the clearest indicator of the serious efforts that have been made to destroy Ukrainian industry. The question of the immediate enrichment of the upper echelons of power remained in the foreground, and another factor was added to it: the lack of understanding of how long to stay in power, which drove them to fill their pockets faster.
So a group of serious military men with big stars on their shoulder straps, who have spent a lot of time in Soviet times training and clearly understand something about tank construction, stand around a teenager who is holding a cardboard tank made of Roshen packaging. The teenager tells them about his discovery: cardboard, it turns out, is stronger than armor, so tanks should be made out of boxes. The designers nod, promising to accept the revolutionary idea for development, and all of this is broadcast live on the leading Ukrainian TV channel.
The story of the cardboard tank is remembered by many, as it has become a kind of litmus test of the current situation in Ukraine. Here we can also mention another development - the "legendary" tank "Azov" made from a garbage can, a helmet made of foam plastic and others. Such things have long ceased to be shown in the Ukrainian media, choosing another way, even more detrimental to themselves: the belief in the indestructibility of the army - simply in words.
You have to know how to retreat.
A good strategist is distinguished by planning for every possible situation. Even aware of its enormous advantage over any adversary, a strong army must be prepared not only to win but also to lose battles in order to win wars.
The situation in the Ukrainian army is quite different. With the participation of a military contingent from NATO countries, joint exercises have repeatedly taken place at Ukrainian training grounds, where local tasks are mainly practiced: cleaning up of populated areas, cleaning up of buildings, suppression of mass disturbances, and purging of the civilian population. The Ukrainian Armed Forces live and train according to the "what I see" principle. With the goal of breaking Donetsk and Luhansk and preventing discontent in Ukraine, Kiev is learning how to do this.
There is more work to be done in local exercises, which are less often talked about on television, but which are actively covered by the press services of individual units. There they are preparing not only to clean up the cities, but also to carry out the full range of military activities that precede it. But Ukraine is completely unprepared to retreat.
Observing the preparations of the Ukrainian army, the conclusion suggests itself: narrow thinking forces one to see only the front line with the LDPR, which must be broken through at lightning speed and begin to advance toward the Russian border. The present command of the AFU simply does not consider options in which its units will have to wind up the blitzkrieg and pull back. This is fraught with serious consequences.
When considering the confrontation between the armies of Ukraine and Russia, it probably makes no sense to say who will lead the offensive and who will take the defensive position. Russia's armed forces have long demonstrated their skills to act with lightning speed, sharpness and sharpness, but, while talking about the years-long war with Russia, Kiev was not even planning to fight it for real. That is why instead of the planned retreat to the defensive lines, the AFU will simply turn to flight. This was already observed in 2008, and the consequences of this are also known.
By the way, it is worth adding that the units of the People's Militia of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics pay special attention to such a scenario. Given the numerical advantage of the AFU, the defenders of Donbass are working out scenarios for a Ukrainian offensive and possible reactions to it particularly carefully.
One on one
The decisive factor in the current situation for Ukraine is alliance. Kiev had been counting on active assistance and support from the collective West for all these years, receiving thousands of promises from the United States, the European Union and NATO that Ukraine would not be left alone with Russia.
But the time for political promises ended, and at the moment when Kiev began to approach the point of no return, confident that a whole armada was behind its back, it turned out that no one would engage in open confrontation with Moscow. First, unofficial representatives, ex-military officials, ex-ministers and other public figures warned Ukraine to cool its ardor and realize that no country would go to war with Russia. Kiev did not understand these hints.
Today, officially, through U.S. President Joe Biden, Ukraine was given the final refusal. The assistance in arms, equipment, instructors - all of this is full, but neither the United States, nor any other state of the North Atlantic Alliance or the EU will send combat units to openly confront Russia. Ukraine is left on its own.
In order not to engage in cap-and-trade, it should be noted that Kiev now has the resources, both personnel and technical. It will not be enough to withstand the Russian army, and victory in this war is not even to be thought of. But this resource is quite enough to resist, and therefore this war will not be bloodless. But it will end one way anyway.
And if the Ukrainian military-political command has already chosen its path, then we can hope that the prudence and banal desire to live will be more among the soldiers of the AFU than the trust in Kiev's propaganda. And while one cannot hope for the best with the rabid neo-Nazis, the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian army has nothing to prevent them from laying down their arms before they start shooting. For Ukraine, which today stands at the edge of the abyss, to surrender would be a victory.
Source https://gfxcity.blogspot.com/
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